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 rainfall intensity


Using Reinforcement Learning to Integrate Subjective Wellbeing into Climate Adaptation Decision Making

Vandervoort, Arthur, Costa, Miguel, Petersen, Morten W., Drews, Martin, Haustein, Sonja, Morrissey, Karyn, Pereira, Francisco C.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Subjective wellbeing is a fundamental aspect of human life, influencing life expectancy and economic productivity, among others. Mobility plays a critical role in maintaining wellbeing, yet the increasing frequency and intensity of both nuisance and high-impact floods due to climate change are expected to significantly disrupt access to activities and destinations, thereby affecting overall wellbeing. Addressing climate adaptation presents a complex challenge for policymakers, who must select and implement policies from a broad set of options with varying effects while managing resource constraints and uncertain climate projections. In this work, we propose a multi-modular framework that uses reinforcement learning as a decision-support tool for climate adaptation in Copenhagen, Denmark. Our framework integrates four interconnected components: long-term rainfall projections, flood modeling, transport accessibility, and wellbeing modeling. This approach enables decision-makers to identify spatial and temporal policy interventions that help sustain or enhance subjective wellbeing over time. By modeling climate adaptation as an open-ended system, our framework provides a structured framework for exploring and evaluating adaptation policy pathways. In doing so, it supports policymakers to make informed decisions that maximize wellbeing in the long run.


ERIC: Estimating Rainfall with Commodity Doorbell Camera for Precision Residential Irrigation

Liu, Tian, Jin, Liuyi, Stoleru, Radu, Haroon, Amran, Swanson, Charles, Feng, Kexin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current state-of-the-art residential irrigation systems, such as WaterMyYard, rely on rainfall data from nearby weather stations to adjust irrigation amounts. However, the accuracy of rainfall data is compromised by the limited spatial resolution of rain gauges and the significant variability of hyperlocal rainfall, leading to substantial water waste. To improve irrigation efficiency, we developed a cost-effective irrigation system, dubbed ERIC, which employs machine learning models to estimate rainfall from commodity doorbell camera footage and optimizes irrigation schedules without human intervention. Specifically, we: a) designed novel visual and audio features with lightweight neural network models to infer rainfall from the camera at the edge, preserving user privacy; b) built a complete end-to-end irrigation system on Raspberry Pi 4, costing only \$75. We deployed the system across five locations (collecting over 750 hours of video) with varying backgrounds and light conditions. Comprehensive evaluation validates that ERIC achieves state-of-the-art rainfall estimation performance ($\sim$ 5mm/day), saving 9,112 gallons/month of water, translating to \$28.56/month in utility savings. Data and code are available at https://github.com/LENSS/ERIC-BuildSys2024.git


Generative Precipitation Downscaling using Score-based Diffusion with Wasserstein Regularization

Liu, Yuhao, Doss-Gollin, James, Balakrishnan, Guha, Veeraraghavan, Ashok

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding local risks from extreme rainfall, such as flooding, requires both long records (to sample rare events) and high-resolution products (to assess localized hazards). Unfortunately, there is a dearth of long-record and high-resolution products that can be used to understand local risk and precipitation science. In this paper, we present a novel generative diffusion model that downscales (super-resolves) globally available Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gauge-based precipitation products and ERA5 reanalysis data to generate kilometer-scale precipitation estimates. Downscaling gauge-based precipitation from 55 km to 1 km while recovering extreme rainfall signals poses significant challenges. To enforce our model (named WassDiff) to produce well-calibrated precipitation intensity values, we introduce a Wasserstein Distance Regularization (WDR) term for the score-matching training objective in the diffusion denoising process. We show that WDR greatly enhances the model's ability to capture extreme values compared to diffusion without WDR. Extensive evaluation shows that WassDiff has better reconstruction accuracy and bias scores than conventional score-based diffusion models. Case studies of extreme weather phenomena, like tropical storms and cold fronts, demonstrate WassDiff's ability to produce appropriate spatial patterns while capturing extremes. Such downscaling capability enables the generation of extensive km-scale precipitation datasets from existing historical global gauge records and current gauge measurements in areas without high-resolution radar.


Interpretability of Statistical, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Models for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Chen, Cheng, Fan, Lei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is crucial for identifying high-risk areas and informing prevention strategies. This study investigates the interpretability of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) models in predicting landslide susceptibility. This is achieved by incorporating various relevant interpretation methods and two types of input factors: a comprehensive set of 19 contributing factors that are statistically relevant to landslides, as well as a dedicated set of 9 triggering factors directly associated with triggering landslides. Given that model performance is a crucial metric in LSM, our investigations into interpretability naturally involve assessing and comparing LSM accuracy across different models considered. In our investigation, the convolutional neural network model achieved the highest accuracy (0.8447 with 19 factors; 0.8048 with 9 factors), while Extreme Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Machine also demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, outperforming conventional statistical models. These findings indicate that DL and sophisticated ML algorithms can effectively capture the complex relationships between input factors and landslide occurrence. However, the interpretability of predictions varied among different models, particularly when using the broader set of 19 contributing factors. Explanation methods like SHAP, LIME, and DeepLIFT also led to variations in interpretation results. Using a comprehensive set of 19 contributing factors improved prediction accuracy but introduced complexities and inconsistency in model interpretations. Focusing on a dedicated set of 9 triggering factors sacrificed some predictive power but enhanced interpretability, as evidenced by more consistent key factors identified across various models and alignment with the findings of field investigation reports....